In the first half of 2026, Chinese imports from Nigeria reached approximately $2.25 billion, an 81 percent increase year-on-year. On May 1, China extended zero-tariff treatment across all tariff lines to products originating from Nigeria and 52 other African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations.
It would be premature to attribute the entire increase to the tariff policy. But the direction is unmistakable: China is increasingly using market access as an instrument of economic statecraft.
Washington should take notice. Nigeria should too.
The case for a commercial reset
The comparison with the United States is instructive. U.S. Census Bureau data show that between January and June 2026, the United States imported approximately $1.8 billion in goods from Nigeria, while exporting about $2.9 billion to Nigeria.
The objective isn’t simply to reverse those numbers or ask America to buy more Nigerian products. A sustainable commercial relationship must work both ways.
The United States should see Nigeria not only as a market but as a potential supplier, production partner and gateway into Africa. Nigeria should similarly see America not merely as an export destination, but as a source of technology, capital and market access capable of strengthening domestic production.
That is the essence of a U.S.–Nigeria commercial reset: a relationship increasingly anchored by mutually beneficial trade, investment and enterprise.
Critical minerals provide a compelling example. The United States is seeking more secure and diversified critical-mineral supply chains for industries ranging from advanced manufacturing to technology and defence. Nigeria possesses significant solid-mineral potential, including lithium, tin and zinc.
Imagine a partnership in which American capital, mining technology and expertise help develop Nigerian resources; processing and value addition increasingly occur in Nigeria; and Nigerian minerals feed secure American supply chains.
America strengthens its supply-chain security. Nigeria attracts investment, acquires technology, creates jobs and diversifies exports.
That is what mutually beneficial trade should look like.
The same logic applies elsewhere: Nigeria can supply more agricultural and processed products, creative services and eventually manufactured goods, while America supplies machinery, technology, healthcare equipment and industrial inputs that make Nigerian businesses more productive.
Democratise commercial diplomacy
The institutional foundations already exist. The question is how to translate diplomatic relationships into transactions.
How many Nigerian businesses secure American buyers? How many American companies find Nigerian partners? How many Nigerian firms enter U.S. supply chains? How many joint ventures create value locally?
More importantly, how many entrepreneurs outside Lagos and Abuja know how to access these opportunities?
As new leadership takes shape at the U.S. Consulate General in Lagos, there is an opportunity for the U.S. Mission to think more expansively about assets it already possesses.
Through the United States Government Exchange Alumni Association of Nigeria (USGEAAN), U.S. exchange alumni are organised across Nigeria. As the association marks the first anniversary of its current National Executive, this nationwide human infrastructure presents an opportunity.
The U.S. Mission should more aggressively connect USGEAAN state chapters, American Spaces and the U.S. Commercial Service as a distributed platform for commercial and workforce development.
And this should go beyond virtual programming from Lagos or Abuja.
Imagine the U.S. Commercial Service working with USGEAAN state chapters to convene local chambers of commerce, manufacturers, exporters, startups, universities and state investment agencies.
The conversations should be practical: What does America want to buy? What opportunities exist for Nigerian suppliers? What standards must exporters meet? What American technologies can improve Nigerian production? How can businesses access U.S. buyers, trade shows, investors and commercial programmes?
American Spaces can increasingly serve as gateways to commercial knowledge, not as trade offices, but as physical platforms bringing American commercial expertise closer to Nigerian businesses.
USGEAAN chapters provide local relationships. American Spaces provide convening platforms. The U.S. Commercial Service provides market intelligence and connections. Local chambers provide businesses.
Connect these pieces, and commercial diplomacy becomes democratised.
Nigeria has homework too
Nigeria cannot simply wait for Washington. Market access is not the same as market readiness.
Exporters still need quality, certification, traceability, reliable production, working capital and credible financial systems. And Nigeria must avoid replacing dependence on crude oil with dependence on unprocessed critical minerals. The ambition must progressively move from extraction towards processing and manufacturing.
Here, U.S. Government exchange alumni can also become economic multipliers. Across Nigeria are alumni with expertise in entrepreneurship, agriculture, technology, finance, public policy etc. Through USGEAAN chapters, they can convene export-ready businesses, support investment-readiness programmes, connect entrepreneurs to institutions and help local enterprises understand international standards.
The United States has invested for decades in developing relationships with emerging Nigerian leaders through exchange programmes. A commercial reset offers an opportunity to translate some of that human and social capital into deeper economic relationships.
But the responsibility ultimately remains Nigeria’s: government must improve the business environment, financial institutions must finance productive enterprises, and Nigerian businesses must become globally competitive.
The success metric should not simply be how many trade agreements Nigeria signs, but how many Nigerian businesses actually trade and how much value they add.
None of this means Nigeria should choose China over America or America over China.
Nigeria should choose Nigeria.
If China opens its market, Nigerian businesses should compete for it. If America needs secure mineral supply chains while offering technology, equipment and capital Nigeria needs, we should build partnerships around that complementarity.
China’s 81 percent increase in imports from Nigeria is therefore more than a trade statistic. It is a reminder that geopolitical influence increasingly follows economic opportunity.
The next chapter should not be about which global power wins Africa. It should be about whether Nigeria learns to win from the competition.
That is the U.S.–Nigeria commercial reset worth pursuing.
Author’s Bio
Daniel Chibuikem Anazia is an accountant, MSME adviser, economic development practitioner and a 2025 Mandela Washington Fellow. He currently serves as Acting Coordinator, USGEAAN Bayelsa. The views expressed are personal.
Pull Quote 1
China is increasingly using market access as an instrument of economic statecraft.
Pull Quote 2
How many Nigerian businesses secure American buyers? How many American companies find Nigerian partners? How many Nigerian firms enter U.S. supply chains? How many joint ventures create value locally?
More importantly, how many entrepreneurs outside Lagos and Abuja know how to access these opportunities?
