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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The writer is a quantum scientist and professor at UCLA
Three of the scientific breakthroughs foundational to quantum computing were born in American labs. The transistor, the transmon superconducting qubit and Shor’s algorithm (which factors large numbers in polynomial time) were all products of US research. But achieving research breakthroughs is not the same as building industrial capacity. If America does not prioritise creating a market and securing the supply chain, it is fated to license quantum technology back at considerable risk to national security.
This has happened before. After America invented the transistor, it watched semiconductor manufacturing migrate to Asia, ceding the most strategic supply chain on Earth. Quantum technology carries the same structural risk.
That is why those of us who have spent years arguing that Washington was underpricing quantum technology celebrated the release of two executive orders signed by President Donald Trump earlier this year.
The first recognises quantum technologies as the “transformational capabilit[y]” that will “drive American innovation”. The second recognises that the nation’s defences must be strengthened against the threat to sensitive encryption-hardened systems. This carries a message the private sector cannot ignore. US adversaries have been harvesting encrypted data in the expectation of decrypting it once a large enough quantum computer exists.
What both orders should do is ignite a national effort to build a quantum computer capable of catalysing scientific discovery across materials science, drug discovery, finance, logistics and more. Today’s machines are still too small and too error-prone to deliver on quantum computing’s promise to solve problems beyond the reach of the largest supercomputer. Designs may diverge — ions, atoms, photons or superconducting circuits — but the goal is the same: a fault-tolerant, utility-scale quantum computer capable of useful work at commercial scale.
Private capital has already made its call. A number of quantum companies have reached the public markets at valuations that would have looked fanciful a few years ago. Alongside incumbents like Google, Microsoft and IBM, there are now entrants such as IonQ and Quantinuum.
But what capital has lacked so far is a demand signal. A guaranteed buyer at a national laboratory will do for quantum what early defence and space contracts once did for silicon. The first executive orders instruct the Department of Energy to become an early purchaser of scientifically relevant quantum computers. It also directs the Department of Commerce to weigh advance market commitments.
The focus on domestic supply chains recognises how public dollars can crowd in private investment. The Department of Commerce has already signed letters of intent to put $2bn into nine quantum companies in exchange for minority, non-controlling equity stakes. This has now been extended across some 15 companies in semiconductors, critical minerals and defence.
Quantum leadership will turn on patient capital, manufacturing built on home soil, a trained workforce and allied alignment. No single country controls the “full stack” necessary for producing quantum-enabled technologies at scale, including cryogenic cooling systems, the rare earths that are inputs for qubits and fabrication capacity for wafers. Creating an allied tech-trade order anchored by American chips, like the Pax Silica initiative, clarifies the vision of domestic production while excluding Beijing from key supply chains.
Washington has signalled co-operation and credibility. If fault-tolerant, utility-scale quantum computers can be built, bought and manufactured within an allied supply chain then America will keep the industry it invented.
