…Year-to-date return rises to 60.53%
Nigeria’s stock market is charging toward its highest annual return in nearly two decades, boasting a 60.53 percent year-to-date (YtD) surge that trails only the historic 2007 bull run.
The market’s explosive performance coincides with FTSE Russell’s reclassification of Nigeria from ‘Unclassified’ back to ‘Frontier Market’ status, a major international vote of confidence following significant FX liquidity reforms and enhanced capital repatriation accessibility.
The milestone is triggering a wave of inflows into blue-chip equities, driving the All-Share Index (ASI) growth toward levels not seen since the 2007 (+74.7 percent) pre-crisis bull run.
Broad market gains year-to-date were heavily anchored by massive surges in three heavyweight sectors: NGX Oil & Gas (+125.94 percent), NGX Industrial Goods (+81.57 percent), and NGX Banking (+74.22 percent).
Also, a surging 60.53 percent YtD return has unlocked unprecedented valuation growth on the Exchange, with equities market capitalisation crossing N160 trillion to hit N162.157 trillion while the All-Share Index (ASI) printed higher at 249,804.56 points on Friday September 18.
This historic rally gains further institutional backing as global index provider FTSE Russell formally restores Nigeria to its Frontier Market Index – reversing its 2023 downgrade, signaling renewed international confidence, and reopening the door for passive global capital flows.
Jude Chiemeka, chief executive officer, Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) said, “The strength we are seeing in the Nigerian equities market reflects growing investor confidence in the resilience and long-term potential of our economy and capital market.”
He said, “As global capital re-engages with Nigeria, our focus at NGX is to ensure that investors have a market that is transparent, efficient, accessible and capable of supporting the scale of capital formation that Nigerian businesses require”.
Read also: Nigeria’s stock market extends Africa lead as dollar return climbs to 73%
According to him, “the opportunity before us is not simply to see the market reach new highs, but to broaden participation, deepen liquidity and create a stronger pipeline of companies accessing the market for long-term growth capital. We are committed to working with market operators and regulators to build an ecosystem that can sustain this momentum and strengthen Nigeria’s position within the global investment landscape.”
Month-to-Date (MTD), the market has risen by 2.30 percent, while it rallied by 2.78 percent in the trading week to September 18.
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) capital adequacy requirements forced banks to raise trillions in fresh capital via rights issues and public offers. Rather than diluting sentiment, it triggered aggressive institutional accumulation of stocks.
Also, market accessibility improvements, FX backlog clearances, and FTSE Russell restoring Nigeria to its Frontier Market Index reopened channels for passive and active global portfolio inflows into equities.
In addition, strong half-year (H1) financial results of listed companies accompanied by higher interim dividend payouts kept retail and institutional buying interest elevated in Nigeria’s stock market.
Likewise, S&P Global’s sovereign rating upgrade for Nigeria, alongside cooling headline inflation, drove local institutional investors (pension funds and asset managers) to shift heavily into equities to secure real inflation-adjusted yields.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) holds its fourth meeting in 2026 on September Monday 21 and Tuesday 22, with the decision expected to be focused on continued moderation in domestic inflation and improving economic activity against renewed global tensions, inflationary and monetary policy pressures.
Lagos-based Meristem research analysts said they expect the MPC to maintain a HOLD stance at its upcoming meeting, as underlying inflationary pressures remain elevated, with additional price pressures possible from external developments and the approaching festive season.
“Although, a rate cut would no doubt ease financing costs, support corporate earnings and the equities market as a whole, the Committee is likely to prioritise locking in the progress made on inflation over risking renewed pressure on macroeconomic stability. Against this backdrop, keeping rates unchanged should provide greater policy certainty and support investor confidence, creating a more stable environment for risk assets,” the analysts further said in their recent note to investors ahead of MPC meeting.
“This, alongside increasing retail participation in the equities market, should help sustain the ongoing market rebound as investors continue to seek opportunities in fundamentally sound stocks. We also expect renewed bargain hunting, particularly in the 10 large-cap Nigerian stocks included in the FTSE Frontier Index, as investors position ahead of the index inclusion, further supporting positive market sentiment,” Meristem analysts added.
United Capital research analysts while noting that NGX bulls extended run as YtD gains cross 60 percent mark noted that, “Trading activity should remain elevated as investors reposition around the Dangote Refinery IPO and FTSE Russell’s Frontier Market reclassification”.
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