Key events
Just had a good friend with a sharp rugby mind suggest I publish this:
34-28 ABs.
Phew, now I’m nervous.
If I have to make a prediction I’ll say Boks to win by six points with four tries to three.
Some reading while we wait courtesy of Gerard and yours truly:
A quick tale of the tape:
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All Blacks v Springboks: 110 Tests – New Zealand 63 wins, South Africa 43, four draws.
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At Ellis Park: 16 Tests – South Africa 10 wins, New Zealand six.
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This is the 13th Test series between the sides. The series ledger is 5-5, with two draws.
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Together they have won seven of 10 World Cups: South Africa four, New Zealand three.
New Zealand team
Richie Mo’unga is back in the wider squad but not yet in the matchday 23, which puts plenty of attention on Ruben Love.
The 25-year-old has been Dave Rennie’s first-choice flyhalf through the Nations Championship and keeps the shirt for the biggest test of his fledgling international career. He’ll have the returning Cam Roigard inside him and Damian McKenzie behind him, giving New Zealand three genuine playmakers.
Will Jordan is also back from injury on the wing, while Ardie Savea returns to captain the side from No 8. The pack has plenty of size but this will be a serious examination of Josh Lord and Fabian Holland against Eben Etzebeth and Ruan Nortje.
Keep an eye on Josh Moorby, too. The winger has only two Test caps and could expect plenty of traffic with Cheslin Kolbe and Damian Willemse lurking on his side of the field.
New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie; 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby; 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard; 1 Ethan de Groot, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 4 Josh Lord, 5 Fabian Holland, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 7 Luke Jacobson, 8 Ardie Savea (c).
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 George Bower, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Simon Parker, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Leroy Carter.
South Africa team
There’s no Siya Kolisi, but this is a team stacked with double World Cup winners.
Damian de Allende wins his 100th cap for the Boks in midfield.
Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu is fit enough to start at flyhalf where he’ll form a dynamic half-back partnership with the electric Grant Williams.
Keep an eye on Paul de Villiers in the 6 jersey. It’s been a while since the Boks have had a genuine fetcher in the back row. He is cut from the same cloth as Heinrich Brussouw and could be crucial in stifling the All Blacks’ quick ball.
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse; 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse; 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Grant Williams; 1 Ox Nche, 2 Malcolm Marx, 3 Wilco Louw, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 5 Ruan Nortje, 6 Paul de Villiers, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit (c), 8 Jasper Wiese.
Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp , 18 Zachary Porthen , 19 Cobus Wiese, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Marco van Staden, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok.
Preamble
Daniel Gallan
Some sporting contests are poorly named.
Teams from only two nations compete for the World Series in baseball. It’s up for debate whether the English top flight is the premier football league in the world.
There is no doubt with this one.
The rivalry between South Africa and New Zealand really is the greatest in men’s rugby union.
With a few fallow years, the All Blacks and Springboks have sat at the top of the sport’s pyramid over the past century. They share 70% of all World Cups contested and are the two most marketable brands in the game. One famous tussle in 1995 even inspired a blockbuster Hollywood movie.
But the gears of capitalism care little for sentiment and the pull of euros, pounds and yen have caused some angst among the beancounters in Cape Town and Auckland. So, in order to profit on what they have, the honchos have come up with this: Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry.
Whatever the motivations, this promises to be nothing short of epic. Dave Rennie’s side look like the All Blacks of old and Rassie Erasmus has already forged one of the great dynasties in all sport. This four-Test series, a year out from a World Cup, would be a major feather in the cap and everyone knows it.
The Boks will start as favourites. They’ve won four of the past five meetings with New Zealand, including the 2023 World Cup final, and last year handed the All Blacks a 43-10 hiding in Wellington. They’re also playing in front of their own fans (at least until the fourth Test in Baltimore, USA).
But the tourists are primed and ready. I’m primed and ready. The rugby world is primed and ready. The time for talk is over. Let’s settle this 105-year-old debate.
Kick at Ellis Park in Johannesburg at 5:10 local time, 4:10 BST.
Teams and more updates to come.
