The election season is only a few months away. Campaigns for the Presidential and National Assembly elections will commence in a matter of days. The country will enter a cycle that will significantly affect commercial retail property more than most other asset classes.
Evidence over the years has revealed a recurring pattern: retail operators have encountered it three times before this century. Understanding this pattern accurately is crucial, rather than dismissing or exaggerating it.
Nigeria’s election cycles often influence investment patterns. Examining the 2011, 2015, and 2019 elections shows that real estate activity tends to decrease before voting and then gradually bounces back afterward. The 2023 cycle was more complicated: some sectors experienced increased liquidity ahead of the election, but it’s uncertain whether this was due to real demand or mere speculation. A major factor was the naira redesign policy. The Central Bank’s cash-swap scheme, introduced weeks before the presidential election to prevent vote-buying, led to liquidity shortages affecting retailers. For instance, Nigerian Breweries reported its lowest February sales in fifteen years, a period usually marked by high cash flow. This indicates that electoral impacts on retail are often more influenced by liquidity policies related to voting than by the election itself, sometimes causing disruptions during campaigns. Typically, the slowdown results from retail activity patterns that aren’t reflected in standard ‘election risk’ assessments.
During elections, demand for naira cash rises due to vote-buying and political costs, which reduces liquidity during a crucial consumer spending period. Additionally, decision-makers tend to postpone projects like leases, renovations, or expansions until stability returns. Early indicators for retail property include changes in foot traffic and tenant sales before vacancy rates or transaction volumes shift. For instance, a shopping center might not lose tenants in October before an election, but could experience a 10-20% drop in Saturday foot traffic if rallies block access or households withhold cash on weekends.
Two wildcards to watch: Neither changes the forecast
Although examining two aspects of the current environment can be helpful, I recommend not relying on either as a dependable predictor of outcomes that differ greatly from the historical baseline.
Nigeria’s opposition seems divided as the campaign season begins. In early 2026, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso moved from the African Democratic Congress to the Nigeria Democratic Congress. This shift has sparked talks of a fragmented opposition, but caution is necessary. With around five months until the January 2027 election, opposition parties still have time to unify or adjust, as Nigerian coalition politics often evolve under similar conditions. For retail landlords, key concerns are seasonal slowdown factors like cash shortages, logistical issues at rallies, and household caution, problems that remain regardless of whether the race is tight or not.
The next major development is the capital markets activity: Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s planned listing on the NGX. The refinery has formally submitted its IPO application to Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange Commission, with the goal of listing by September 2026. The offer size estimates range from around $1 billion for an initial tranche to as much as $5 billion, depending on the scope. However, there is currently no SEC-approved prospectus, confirmed price range, or definite listing date, so this should be viewed as an evolving event rather than a finalised plan. Even if the listing proceeds as expected, it aims to raise capital through equity sales rather than directly influence household or institutional leasing decisions, which primarily concern retail landlords.
The primary factor that genuinely impacts the result
Security remains the most significant factor that can disrupt this cycle more than politics. NECA’s Director-General, Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, cautioned that the discipline needed to uphold Nigeria’s fiscal and monetary reforms might weaken as the 2027 cycle approaches. He highlighted that political transitions often lead to policy uncertainty and reversals, even as rising fuel and food prices already strain households. Additionally, a 2026 survey on business security risks identified major threats like subnational insecurity, especially in the north; socioeconomic instability caused by inflation and unemployment; and regulatory uncertainties linked to the pre-election cycle. This issue should be viewed as a separate economic concern, not just political: during high-risk periods, businesses tend to increase security and logistics spending, urban foot traffic drops as people stay home, and retail tenants reliant on daily customers face immediate challenges.
Regional exposure encompasses more than simple directional claims. Abuja’s economy heavily depends on political events and government employment, increasing investor caution ahead of the 2027 elections. A mid-2025 Northcourt real estate report, cited by SBM Intelligence, indicated vacancy rates of 17%, 15%, and 21% at various Grade A malls in Abuja, including Wuse Novare, Apo 2, and Silverbird, following the departure of major tenants like Shoprite. These vacancies continued into 2026, though recent data is unavailable. The market seems less resilient to slowdowns linked to election cycles. In contrast, Lagos, the main commercial hub, is less affected by politics and faces risks from currency fluctuations and consumer spending but generally remains unaffected by political cycles. Despite inflation and rising building costs, Lagos continues to attract consistent investment across residential, commercial, and mixed-use sectors. Understanding these regional differences is essential for assessing portfolio exposure over the next five months.
What this means for the next five months
Retail landlords and tenants don’t need to take a defensive stance over the next few months. Transaction activity will slow during the voting period and gradually pick up.
Monitor foot traffic and tenant sales trends carefully, as they provide early insights into financial stability. Rent collections and vacancy rates often lag behind these indicators. Focus especially on cash-heavy, high-turnover tenants such as supermarkets, grocery stores, household goods retailers, pharmacies, and quick-service restaurants. Their daily transaction volumes are the first to indicate liquidity issues, exemplified by the Naira liquidity shortage faced by Nigerian Breweries in 2023, which was immediately evident at the point of sale.
This isn’t a warning of an unprecedented event. Nigeria’s retail sector has gone through several election cycles and has slowly transitioned from informal markets to organized, branded retail outlets. The main difference between this cycle and those of 2011, 2015, and 2019 isn’t the election outcomes but the persistent and attentive monitoring of key metrics by landlords and tenants, despite campaign distractions.
Orimalade is a commercial retail property expert
